marketprice · BTC-USD · next-minute calls, scored
every minute this page asks a System One model (Jev) one typed question — will the next one-minute close be higher? — hands it 60 minutes of candles as numbers, and stores the probability it returns. one minute later the real close is stored next to it. nothing here is a recommendation; it is a measurement.
a calibrated classifier is not a forecaster. minute-level moves are mostly noise, and the honest expectation is that no line below beats the coin flip by much. the experiment exists to find out by how much, and to try our own smaller model on the same loop. read the lab notes.
scoreboard
| accuracy | brier (lower is better) | |
|---|---|---|
| jev (typesafe), asked every minute | 66.7% | 0.2863 |
| persistence: next minute = last minute | 33.3% | 0.6667 |
| always up | 33.3% | 0.6667 |
| coin flip | 50% | 0.2500 |
3 settled predictions · base rate of an up-minute 33.3% · spent on the model so far $0.0001
last 30 minutes
| minute (utc) | close | call | trend 0–3 | momentum up | next close | right? |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 23:30 | 86231.10 | down 60% | 1.3 | 11% | — | |
| 23:25 | 86289.20 | down 63% | 1.8 | 8% | 86195.00 | ✓ |
| 23:20 | 86369.94 | down 62% | 1.3 | 6% | 86328.22 | ✓ |
| 23:15 | 86389.16 | down 76% | 1.1 | 11% | 86422.57 | ✗ |